Learn › Using TickerRisk · Nov 2026 · 5 min read
How the TickerRisk Risk Score Works
The TickerRisk score rates how exposed a stock is to scheduled events and large moves before a chosen option expiry, on a 0 to 100 scale. This page lists every input, its points and its time window, so you can see exactly why a stock scores the way it does.
The short version
The TickerRisk score is a number from 0 to 100 that measures how exposed a stock is to scheduled events and large price moves before a chosen option expiry. It adds up points for an earnings report inside the window, recent negative news, FDA and clinical-trial milestones, court cases, SEC filings, and the move that implied volatility is pricing in. The total is capped at 100.
- 70 or above: HIGH. Something significant is scheduled or priced in before expiry.
- 45 to 69: MEDIUM. At least one real risk, such as an earnings report, sits in the window.
- Below 45: LOW. Nothing major is on the calendar and the expected move is modest.
A low score means the calendar is clear, not that the stock cannot fall. The score measures exposure to known events, not the direction of the next move.
What goes into the score
| Input | Points | Time window |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings report | 40 points if the next report falls before your expiry | Inside your expiry window |
| Negative news | 20 points per headline, halving in weight every 6 days | Last 45 days |
| Positive news | 3 points per headline, halving every 6 days, capped at 12 | Last 45 days |
| FDA and clinical trials | 25 points per major trial milestone, 2 per routine update, capped at 30 in total | Milestones inside your expiry window; updates from the last 45 days |
| Court cases | 2 points per case | Filed in the last 45 days |
| SEC filings | 2 points per filing | Last 5 days |
| Expected move | 0 to 75 points from implied volatility (table below) | Scaled to your expiry |
Every input is added together and the total is capped at 100. Earnings carries the most weight on its own because an earnings report is the most common cause of a large overnight gap in a stock you have sold an option on. News is weighted by age: a headline from today counts in full, one from six days ago counts half, and older headlines fade further.
The expected-move component
For an option seller, a large expected move is a risk in itself, even with nothing on the calendar: the stock can move through your strike. The score converts implied volatility into a one-standard-deviation expected move for your expiry (implied volatility multiplied by the square root of the time to expiry) and adds points from this scale:
| Expected move by expiry | Points | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Under 8% | 0 | Normal for most large stocks over a few weeks |
| 8–12% | 6 | |
| 12–16% | 14 | |
| 16–20% | 28 | |
| 20–26% | 50 | MEDIUM on its own |
| 26–34% | 65 | |
| Over 34% | 75 | HIGH on its own |
Because the expected move grows with time, the same stock can add nothing to a one-week score and a lot to a two-month score. Implied volatility readings above 300% are treated as data errors and add nothing.
Why the score depends on your expiry
The score is always calculated for a specific expiry. Two things change as the window gets longer: whether the next earnings report or a clinical milestone falls inside it, and how large the expected move becomes. Looking back at news, court cases and filings uses fixed windows that do not change with the expiry.
This is the most important thing to know about the score. A weekly option and a monthly option on the same stock can have very different risk, because the monthly may run straight through an earnings report that the weekly avoids.
A worked example
Take a stock with an earnings report in three weeks, one negative headline from two days ago, two court cases filed this month, and implied volatility of 50%.
| Input | 4-week expiry | 2-week expiry |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings in window | 40 | 0 (report falls after expiry) |
| Negative headline, 2 days old | 16 | 16 |
| Two court cases | 4 | 4 |
| Expected move | 14 (about ±14%) | 6 (about ±10%) |
| Total | 74, HIGH | 26, LOW |
Same stock, same day. Selling the two-week option avoids the earnings report; selling the four-week option sells straight through it. That difference is what the score is built to show.
Where the data comes from
- Earnings dates: public company earnings calendars.
- News: public news feeds, classified as negative or positive.
- FDA and clinical trials: ClinicalTrials.gov.
- Court cases: CourtListener federal court records.
- SEC filings: SEC EDGAR.
- Implied volatility: option chains, delayed by about 15 minutes. When no reliable two-sided quote exists, for example outside US market hours, the last good reading is kept rather than replaced with a bad number.
Every S&P 500 stock is re-checked about every 30 minutes. Public data can be incomplete or late, so confirm anything important at the source before trading.
What the score does not measure
- Which way the stock will move.
- Valuation, profitability or balance-sheet health.
- Market-wide events such as Fed meetings or inflation reports.
- Surprises nobody scheduled: an unexpected lawsuit, an accident, a takeover bid.
- How liquid the options are. Check the bid-ask spread and open interest separately.
Quick answers
Why is a stock with no news scored HIGH? Usually because implied volatility is pricing a large move by your expiry. The breakdown on each scan shows which inputs contributed.
Why did the score change when I changed the expiry? An earnings report or trial milestone moved into or out of the window, or the expected move grew or shrank with time.
Can I see the inputs for a specific stock? Yes. Every scan lists each input with its points and links to the underlying news, filings and court records.
Use it
Scan any S&P 500 stock on the home page, compare the whole index on the scanner, or let the wheel scanner and covered call scanner filter candidates on the score for each option’s own expiry. Related: what Edge Score is and how to check catalyst risk before selling options.
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